おはこんばんちは
今回は期待値の話です。
理系ではないサイロウが確率を語るよ!
さて、15%も下手すりゃ67%も失敗を重ね、
くじではろくに稀も出ないようなサイロウが確率を語ります。
えーっと、表で語ります。
つまりアレです。
10%っていうけどさ、実際何回くらいやれば成功するのよって話です。
回数 | 15% | 10% | 5% | 2% |
1 | 15.0% | 10.0% | 5.0% | 2.0% |
2 | 27.8% | 19.0% | 9.8% | 4.0% |
3 | 38.6% | 27.1% | 14.3% | 5.9% |
4 | 47.8% | 34.4% | 18.5% | 7.8% |
5 | 55.6% | 41.0% | 22.6% | 9.6% |
6 | 62.3% | 46.9% | 26.5% | 11.4% |
7 | 67.9% | 52.2% | 30.2% | 13.2% |
8 | 72.8% | 57.0% | 33.7% | 14.9% |
9 | 76.8% | 61.3% | 37.0% | 16.6% |
10 | 80.3% | 65.1% | 40.1% | 18.3% |
11 | 83.3% | 68.6% | 43.1% | 19.9% |
12 | 85.8% | 71.8% | 46.0% | 21.5% |
13 | 87.9% | 74.6% | 48.7% | 23.1% |
14 | 89.7% | 77.1% | 51.2% | 24.6% |
15 | 91.3% | 79.4% | 53.7% | 26.1% |
16 | 92.6% | 81.5% | 56.0% | 27.6% |
17 | 93.7% | 83.3% | 58.2% | 29.1% |
18 | 94.6% | 85.0% | 60.3% | 30.5% |
19 | 95.4% | 86.5% | 62.3% | 31.9% |
20 | 96.1% | 87.8% | 64.2% | 33.2% |
21 | 96.7% | 89.1% | 65.9% | 34.6% |
22 | 97.2% | 90.2% | 67.6% | 35.9% |
23 | 97.6% | 91.1% | 69.3% | 37.2% |
24 | 98.0% | 92.0% | 70.8% | 38.4% |
25 | 98.3% | 92.8% | 72.3% | 39.7% |
26 | 98.5% | 93.5% | 73.6% | 40.9% |
27 | 98.8% | 94.2% | 75.0% | 42.0% |
28 | 98.9% | 94.8% | 76.2% | 43.2% |
29 | 99.1% | 95.3% | 77.4% | 44.3% |
30 | 99.2% | 95.8% | 78.5% | 45.5% |
31 | 99.4% | 96.2% | 79.6% | 46.5% |
32 | 99.4% | 96.6% | 80.6% | 47.6% |
33 | 99.5% | 96.9% | 81.6% | 48.7% |
34 | 99.6% | 97.2% | 82.5% | 49.7% |
35 | 99.7% | 97.5% | 83.4% | 50.7% |
36 | 99.7% | 97.7% | 84.2% | 51.7% |
37 | 99.8% | 98.0% | 85.0% | 52.6% |
38 | 99.8% | 98.2% | 85.8% | 53.6% |
39 | 99.8% | 98.4% | 86.5% | 54.5% |
40 | 99.8% | 98.5% | 87.1% | 55.4% |
41 | 99.9% | 98.7% | 87.8% | 56.3% |
42 | 99.9% | 98.8% | 88.4% | 57.2% |
43 | 99.9% | 98.9% | 89.0% | 58.1% |
44 | 99.9% | 99.0% | 89.5% | 58.9% |
45 | 99.9% | 99.1% | 90.1% | 59.7% |
46 | 99.9% | 99.2% | 90.6% | 60.5% |
47 | 99.9% | 99.3% | 91.0% | 61.3% |
48 | 99.9% | 99.4% | 91.5% | 62.1% |
49 | 99.9% | 99.4% | 91.9% | 62.8% |
50 | 99.9% | 99.5% | 92.3% | 63.6% |
大体80%っていう確率ならくぐれるんじゃないかって感じなら。
15%なら10回
10%なら16回
5%なら32回
これくらいやれば成功が期待できるって話です。
ちなみに一番右は極くじの確率。
半分の人は35回も引けば極が出るはずってことですな。
まあ、実例を上げると課金しない伝授で
智勇兼備を伝授しようとした場合。
10匹くらい用意すれば大丈夫かなって、話です。
表示確率を信用するならね?
もちろん最後は運です。
だって、50回やっても成功期待値は99.9%ですからね・・・
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